https://blue.feedland.org/?river=http://data.feedland.org/blue/feeds/bingham.xml It's just a feed for now Thu, 29 Feb 2024 16:18:14 GMT feedland v0.6.43 https://cyber.harvard.edu/rss/rss.html Thu, 29 Feb 2024 16:18:14 GMT http://rpc.rsscloud.io:5337/pleaseNotify Thu, February 29, 2024 11:18 AM EST <p>Just trying to air out some thoughts on the election, as it appears at the end of February, at least. Especially with regards to some fairly persuasive pessimism going around.</p> <p>The big thing is, as best as I can tell, Trump -- and the Republicans in general -- are in a bad spot right now, regardless of the &quot;vibe&quot; one might get from media coverage.</p> <p>Firstly, look back at 2022. Talk about the &quot;red tsunami&quot; was everywhere, with conservative pundits crowing about it up until election day -- when you might recall the GOP had the worst performance of an opposition party in a midterm in twenty years.</p> <p>Midterm elections historically favor the party out of the White House, and the economy in &#39;22 was not as robust as it is now -- another factor that benefits the party in the White House.</p> <p>&#39;22 was a substantial underperformance for people with R after their names, and there&#39;s no reason to think &#39;24 will be better with fewer baked-in advantages than they had the last time around.</p> <p>There have been four special elections since -- in New York, Rhode Island, Utah, and Virginia -- and all of them have resulted in *worse* margins for the Republican candidate than in &#39;22. The midterms were bad for the Republicans, and elections since then have shown no improvement.</p> <p>We&#39;ve seen a lot of coverage on support for the candidates in their primaries. Biden&#39;s worst performance, so far, is better than Trump&#39;s best performance. The Democrats are much more aligned behind Biden than the Republicans are behind Trump. This reality isn&#39;t really objectively debatable.</p> <p>Biden as a *write-in candidate* in New Hampshire had a better result than *any* of Trump&#39;s primaries.</p> <p>Trump is lurching through a minefield of legal ramifications. Sure, he&#39;s gotten a pass on *one* of them (for now), but still has three other trials in process and has to come up with money that it doesn&#39;t appear he even has for two of his recent losses in court.</p> <p>Even if any particular one of these legal concerns isn&#39;t likely to have a significant negative impact on his campaign, the sheer number of crises he has to dodge makes it likely *something* is going to hit him.</p> <p>At the core of it, Trump does not appear to be making inroads with the independent voters he needs to seriously contest the election.</p> <p>The fanaticism from his base continues unabated, but if the primaries are any indication, that base isn&#39;t as large or devoted as it was the last time he lost a national election.</p> <p>Ultimately, to be bullish on Trump, you&#39;d have to think that either his personal brand -- while he coughs up hundreds of millions in damages and flies between courtrooms for his criminal cases -- is better than it was when he lost in &#39;20.</p> <p>Or that the Republican brand is stronger *without* the advantages of being the outsider during an economic slump and a midterm than its poor performance in &#39;22.</p> <p>There&#39;s just not much reason to believe either.</p> <p>What we&#39;re seeing a textbook example of regression to the mean. Trump isn&#39;t a political genius; he got lucky once against a poor candidate. His party underperforming consistently since then is the more accurate reflection of his politcal acumen.</p> <p>2016 was a fluke.</p> <p>Eight months is a long time in an election year, but as of right now, it&#39;s not looking good for the GOP.</p> <p>Even still, always vote like every issue is going down to the wire. Always.</p> Thu, 29 Feb 2024 16:18:14 GMT https://blue.feedland.org/?item=301941 https://blue.feedland.org/?item=301941 Just trying to air out some thoughts on the election, as it appears at the end of February, at least. Especially with regards to some fairly persuasive pessimism going around. The big thing is, as best as I can tell, Trump -- and the Republicans in general -- are in a bad spot right now, regardless of the "vibe" one might get from media coverage. Firstly, look back at 2022. Talk about the "red tsunami" was everywhere, with conservative pundits crowing about it up until election day -- when you might recall the GOP had the worst performance of an opposition party in a midterm in twenty years. Midterm elections historically favor the party out of the White House, and the economy in '22 was not as robust as it is now -- another factor that benefits the party in the White House. '22 was a substantial underperformance for people with R after their names, and there's no reason to think '24 will be better with fewer baked-in advantages than they had the last time around. There have been four special elections since -- in New York, Rhode Island, Utah, and Virginia -- and all of them have resulted in \*worse\* margins for the Republican candidate than in '22. The midterms were bad for the Republicans, and elections since then have shown no improvement. We've seen a lot of coverage on support for the candidates in their primaries. Biden's worst performance, so far, is better than Trump's best performance. The Democrats are much more aligned behind Biden than the Republicans are behind Trump. This reality isn't really objectively debatable. Biden as a \*write-in candidate\* in New Hampshire had a better result than \*any\* of Trump's primaries. Trump is lurching through a minefield of legal ramifications. Sure, he's gotten a pass on \*one\* of them (for now), but still has three other trials in process and has to come up with money that it doesn't appear he even has for two of his recent losses in court. Even if any particular one of these legal concerns isn't likely to have a significant negative impact on his campaign, the sheer number of crises he has to dodge makes it likely \*something\* is going to hit him. At the core of it, Trump does not appear to be making inroads with the independent voters he needs to seriously contest the election. The fanaticism from his base continues unabated, but if the primaries are any indication, that base isn't as large or devoted as it was the last time he lost a national election. Ultimately, to be bullish on Trump, you'd have to think that either his personal brand -- while he coughs up hundreds of millions in damages and flies between courtrooms for his criminal cases -- is better than it was when he lost in '20. Or that the Republican brand is stronger \*without\* the advantages of being the outsider during an economic slump and a midterm than its poor performance in '22. There's just not much reason to believe either. What we're seeing a textbook example of regression to the mean. Trump isn't a political genius; he got lucky once against a poor candidate. His party underperforming consistently since then is the more accurate reflection of his politcal acumen. 2016 was a fluke. Eight months is a long time in an election year, but as of right now, it's not looking good for the GOP. Even still, always vote like every issue is going down to the wire. Always. <p>Just trying to air out some thoughts on the election, as it appears at the end of February, at least. Especially with regards to some fairly persuasive pessimism going around.</p> <p>The big thing is, as best as I can tell, Trump -- and the Republicans in general -- are in a bad spot right now, regardless of the &quot;vibe&quot; one might get from media coverage.</p> <p>Firstly, look back at 2022. Talk about the &quot;red tsunami&quot; was everywhere, with conservative pundits crowing about it up until election day -- when you might recall the GOP had the worst performance of an opposition party in a midterm in twenty years.</p> <p>Midterm elections historically favor the party out of the White House, and the economy in &#39;22 was not as robust as it is now -- another factor that benefits the party in the White House.</p> <p>&#39;22 was a substantial underperformance for people with R after their names, and there&#39;s no reason to think &#39;24 will be better with fewer baked-in advantages than they had the last time around.</p> <p>There have been four special elections since -- in New York, Rhode Island, Utah, and Virginia -- and all of them have resulted in *worse* margins for the Republican candidate than in &#39;22. The midterms were bad for the Republicans, and elections since then have shown no improvement.</p> <p>We&#39;ve seen a lot of coverage on support for the candidates in their primaries. Biden&#39;s worst performance, so far, is better than Trump&#39;s best performance. The Democrats are much more aligned behind Biden than the Republicans are behind Trump. This reality isn&#39;t really objectively debatable.</p> <p>Biden as a *write-in candidate* in New Hampshire had a better result than *any* of Trump&#39;s primaries.</p> <p>Trump is lurching through a minefield of legal ramifications. Sure, he&#39;s gotten a pass on *one* of them (for now), but still has three other trials in process and has to come up with money that it doesn&#39;t appear he even has for two of his recent losses in court.</p> <p>Even if any particular one of these legal concerns isn&#39;t likely to have a significant negative impact on his campaign, the sheer number of crises he has to dodge makes it likely *something* is going to hit him.</p> <p>At the core of it, Trump does not appear to be making inroads with the independent voters he needs to seriously contest the election.</p> <p>The fanaticism from his base continues unabated, but if the primaries are any indication, that base isn&#39;t as large or devoted as it was the last time he lost a national election.</p> <p>Ultimately, to be bullish on Trump, you&#39;d have to think that either his personal brand -- while he coughs up hundreds of millions in damages and flies between courtrooms for his criminal cases -- is better than it was when he lost in &#39;20.</p> <p>Or that the Republican brand is stronger *without* the advantages of being the outsider during an economic slump and a midterm than its poor performance in &#39;22.</p> <p>There&#39;s just not much reason to believe either.</p> <p>What we&#39;re seeing a textbook example of regression to the mean. Trump isn&#39;t a political genius; he got lucky once against a poor candidate. His party underperforming consistently since then is the more accurate reflection of his politcal acumen.</p> <p>2016 was a fluke.</p> <p>Eight months is a long time in an election year, but as of right now, it&#39;s not looking good for the GOP.</p> <p>Even still, always vote like every issue is going down to the wire. Always.</p> Thu, 29 Feb 2024 16:13:01 GMT https://blue.feedland.org/?item=301934 https://blue.feedland.org/?item=301934 Just trying to air out some thoughts on the election, as it appears at the end of February, at least. Especially with regards to some fairly persuasive pessimism going around. The big thing is, as best as I can tell, Trump -- and the Republicans in general -- are in a bad spot right now, regardless of the "vibe" one might get from media coverage. Firstly, look back at 2022. Talk about the "red tsunami" was everywhere, with conservative pundits crowing about it up until election day -- when you might recall the GOP had the worst performance of an opposition party in a midterm in twenty years. Midterm elections historically favor the party out of the White House, and the economy in '22 was not as robust as it is now -- another factor that benefits the party in the White House. '22 was a substantial underperformance for people with R after their names, and there's no reason to think '24 will be better with fewer baked-in advantages than they had the last time around. There have been four special elections since -- in New York, Rhode Island, Utah, and Virginia -- and all of them have resulted in \*worse\* margins for the Republican candidate than in '22. The midterms were bad for the Republicans, and elections since then have shown no improvement. We've seen a lot of coverage on support for the candidates in their primaries. Biden's worst performance, so far, is better than Trump's best performance. The Democrats are much more aligned behind Biden than the Republicans are behind Trump. This reality isn't really objectively debatable. Biden as a \*write-in candidate\* in New Hampshire had a better result than \*any\* of Trump's primaries. Trump is lurching through a minefield of legal ramifications. Sure, he's gotten a pass on \*one\* of them (for now), but still has three other trials in process and has to come up with money that it doesn't appear he even has for two of his recent losses in court. Even if any particular one of these legal concerns isn't likely to have a significant negative impact on his campaign, the sheer number of crises he has to dodge makes it likely \*something\* is going to hit him. At the core of it, Trump does not appear to be making inroads with the independent voters he needs to seriously contest the election. The fanaticism from his base continues unabated, but if the primaries are any indication, that base isn't as large or devoted as it was the last time he lost a national election. Ultimately, to be bullish on Trump, you'd have to think that either his personal brand -- while he coughs up hundreds of millions in damages and flies between courtrooms for his criminal cases -- is better than it was when he lost in '20. Or that the Republican brand is stronger \*without\* the advantages of being the outsider during an economic slump and a midterm than its poor performance in '22. There's just not much reason to believe either. What we're seeing a textbook example of regression to the mean. Trump isn't a political genius; he got lucky once against a poor candidate. His party underperforming consistently since then is the more accurate reflection of his politcal acumen. 2016 was a fluke. Eight months is a long time in an election year, but as of right now, it's not looking good for the GOP. Even still, always vote like every issue is going down to the wire. Always.