My Feed

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 15:01:45 GMT

A post by my son that I've decided to disseminate. Even if he weren't my son, I'd post this all over the place, because it's smart and it's right. Give him a follow: @vincentavas.bsky.social

My short (perhaps not so short) rant about the darkness of today's world, to which hearts and minds are increasingly opening:

Recently, we hear more and more discussions about national conservatism, including the recent Politico podcast episode "Meet JD Vance's surprising EU support network."

This movement, positioning itself as an "intellectual opposition" to modern values, is gaining more attention. But what lies behind these supposedly new ideas? And how can we justify granting legitimacy and airspace to the revenge-seekers? This is not a debate; it's a direct danger to Western democracy.

First, supporters of national conservatism often call themselves "foreign policy realists." They claim their viewpoint is based on reality, not idealistic values. However, the reality is they only adhere to values as long as they don’t conflict with authoritarian regimes. This is a betrayal of values.

This "realism" resembles pragmatism without moral guidelines, where human rights and democracy become bargaining chips. This is not strategy – it's a betrayal of values. We must stand against it as it undermines democracy in the name of convenience and self-interest.

Second, national conservatism is not a new idea. It is an attempt to usurp the influence of modern center political forces on both the left and right. The world model they propose is a single-family community that cannot develop technologically, demographically, or culturally.

Such a vision is not progress, but stagnation – closing oneself off in past narratives that ignore contemporary global challenges. This is not about forward-thinking policies but a retreat into outdated concepts. We need growth and adaptability, not a reversion to the past.

Elements of revenge are also prominent in this movement. They claim to be fighting against "pointless wars" and push for quick conflict resolutions, especially in Ukraine. But what is the value of a "saved life" if it’s doomed to live under dictatorship, totalitarianism, and forced assimilation?

These "realistic" solutions often ignore long-term consequences – both for the freedom of oppressed nations and for the future of democratic principles in the world. We cannot allow such shortsightedness to guide international policy. The world needs lasting solutions, not quick fixes.

Granting airtime and legitimacy to such ideas is not only dangerous but shameful. Allowing revenge-seekers and pseudo-intellectuals to dominate the debate opens the door to authoritarianism. In 2025, their influence is growing, threatening our democracy, freedoms, and rights. We must reject it unequivocally.

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 09:05:15 GMT

People or technology?

The Russians in the Kursk direction are failing to turn the situation in their favor. During the counterattack, they had hoped to break through the Ukrainian forces and cut off part of them. The Ukrainians made good use of the terrain and successfully maintained their lines of defense.

By breaking through another frontier themselves, they made things much more complicated for the Russians in this direction. The blow to the rear forced the Russians to react quickly and, instead of continuing their counterattack, they were forced to redeploy their forces.

The situation in the direction of Kursk suggests that the Ukrainians are serious about holding on to Russian lands and are not going to let go of this prey easily. This is undoubtedly linked not only to the desire to force the Russians to redeploy more forces in this direction, but also to the desire to complicate matters considerably for Putin if the matter comes to peace talks.

This is a very important decision strategically, so let us hope that the Ukrainians will continue to be able to successfully resist the Russians. In fairness, we have to say that, in the Kursk direction, the Ukrainians are not only defending themselves but are also managing to take some new villages. However, these are tactical achievements.

The situation in the other directions is much more complex, although far from critical or threatening catastrophic consequences. The Russians have made some gains at Vuhledar, although the Ukrainians have been defending very successfully here for almost two years. At Pokrovsk, the Russian gains are minimal. There are other places where we see some Russian progress.

What determines the success of the Russians? The word success should be used more in a conditional sense...

We see a clear change in the Russian tactics. It evolves and changes throughout the war. We can safely call the current actions of the Russians some lessons learned. Increasingly, we are seeing the Russians operating with large forces. Whereas before, a great deal of action was taking place in very small groups or in wave after wave, we are now seeing offensives with increasingly concentrated forces. Where the offensive is being carried out with forces as large as a company or even a battalion.

Such an offensive capability is more strongly supported by aerial, artillery, radio-electronic warfare. So, it automatically poses a much greater threat to the Ukrainian defense. Fortunately, Russian coordination is not so good, as there is a lack of many means. However, it is not a good trend. To conclude, it is clear that the Russians are learning, innovating, experimenting, and time and again finding solutions that lead to success on their side as well.

The Ukrainians, on the other hand, are defending very well and successfully exploiting the opportunity to destroy a moving enemy. The war is increasingly moving into the technological arena, where success increasingly depends on purely technical solutions.

We can say that we are witnessing a radical transformation of the battlefield. Technology is fighting against people and against other technologies.

The Ukrainians have shared their thoughts that this process will only accelerate and that the importance of technology on the battlefield will grow. Already now, reconnaissance drones are identifying targets, classifying them, and transmitting data to the "customer" autonomously with the help of technological solutions. On the frontlines, drones fire on drones while in the air. It is only a matter of time (very soon) before we see autonomous swarms of drones acting on their own, discriminating and selecting targets and the means to destroy them when, where and how. The far more interesting question will be who will control those drones? Humans or technology?

So, as we move towards the fourth year of the war, the dynamics on the battlefield are only going to intensify, the importance and use of technology on both sides is growing and will continue to grow. However, no matter how technology evolves, weapons and people are of paramount importance on the battlefield. Technology cannot, as yet, overwhelm man and metal. This is also evident on the battlefield. The superiority of aviation, the importance of artillery and missile capabilities, etc.

While this importance remains paramount, logistics and the timely supply of units also play an important role. This is where the Ukrainians, with their long-range drones, can have their say. Over the past few weeks, they have successfully destroyed huge ammunition depots in the interior of Russia.

According to markings and other data, the Russians are known to feed ammunition to the front while it is still "hot", straight off the production lines. The destruction of such warehouses and depots, at least at operational level, is a powerful blow to Russian logistics.

It will not stop the flow of ammunition to the front, but it could significantly alter Russian plans and disrupt logistical chains.

We have noticed a trend that when Ukrainian President Zelensky goes to very serious meetings, as if by accident in Russia, Ukrainian drones become rare guests. The aim is to avoid any major blows, so that this subject of Ukrainian strikes into the Russian interior does not overshadow much more important topics and issues. We should see serious and successful Ukrainian strikes into the Russian interior soon.

The Ukrainians will continue with their tactics of surveillance (defense). It is a very logical decision to protect the troops and to await the technological advances that will make the participation of troops in direct hostilities the exception rather than the rule.

To conclude on the assumptions. For some reason, we have a hunch that some of the successful strikes into the Russian interior are the combined use of drones and missiles. For the time being, we cannot say this with certainty, but there are interesting signs. On this basis, we conclude that the Ukrainians already have quite good missile solutions for strikes into the interior of Russia, and that it will become more and more difficult for the Russians to defend themselves against them.

#ukraine #war updates

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 11:01:16 GMT

The war costs are very high https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2024-08-06-800-justas-gavenas-cmc-ehnvf/

It has been a long time since the last review, and there has been no shortage of events in Ukraine. Here is a summary of the main observations.

Ukraine has finally received F-16 fighter jets. "For friendship there is no distance". There is much speculation about the actual number of fighters received. This information is being carefully concealed from the enemy, and with good reason.

The first suspicions about the F-16s arose immediately after the Ukrainians announced the successful destruction of all 89 Shahed drones about a week ago. It became obvious even then that something had been used that had not been there before. For such tasks (destroying slow-moving targets), fighter jets are the perfect tool.

Information is coming to light that the occupiers have already lost one other aircraft in the battle, the shooting down of which they cannot yet explain. We would doubt that this is the work of the F-16. It will take another month before the F-16 becomes a highly aggressive and effective weapon.

The fact that they are already in operation is causing a serious panic among the Russians, because the real capabilities of the fighters are not yet clear to them. And they have a lot to fear.

The Ukrainian strikes on military installations in the occupied territories continue to be very successful. The strikes inside Russia have been equally successful. After a whole series of not very successful drone strikes, the Ukrainians have succeeded in defeating electronic warfare. This demonstrates the very rapid progress and adaptability of technology. Thanks to this, the Ukrainians have been able to strike very heavy blows against the occupiers' factories, energy system, military bases and armaments.

The Russians have not been very successful in this area recently and are obviously saving resources and preparing for another powerful blow. Intelligence and information gathering is now under way.

The Ukrainians are significantly strengthening their air defenses to maximize the protection of the energy system, which is expected to be the main target. Add to the air defense the capabilities of the F-16s and the chances of protecting the targets increase several-fold. By obtaining fighter jets, the Ukrainians are significantly expanding their reconnaissance capabilities, deep strikes, especially against enemy aircraft.

On the front, meanwhile, things are difficult for the Ukrainians. Absolutely nothing new, because, as we have said, the invaders have until the US elections to seize the maximum of Ukrainian territory. At all costs.

The Ukrainians are continuing to maneuver with the aim of exhausting the occupiers. The Russians are bleeding to death. We are seeing less and less combat equipment on the battlefield. When analyzing the data on artillery losses suffered by the Russians, it is evident that the destruction of self-propelled artillery guns has fallen sharply, and that the destruction of towed, old guns has increased in percentage terms.

This is one example of the growing problems of invading armies. Another example is that the Russians are struggling to get soldiers onto the battlefield. The payments for signing contracts are being raised considerably, but this does not seem to be helping much.

There are still some troops signing up, but the recruitment is becoming increasingly difficult. Losses are extremely high and difficult to compensate for, which is why untrained or extremely poorly trained soldiers are sent to the front.

The Russians hope to break through the defenses as they advance, but so far, they have been unable to do so. Progress is slow, viscous, with extremely high casualties and a process that defies logical explanation.

The Ukrainians have retreated from the left bank of the Dnipro and are successfully operating on the islands. Their importance should not be underestimated, especially in view of the effective drone strikes, reconnaissance operations and the aim of locking down the occupying forces in the area.

In the Kherson direction, the Russians continue to be in pain because they are forced to keep a much larger force there than they would like. The Ukrainians, who have received several high-speed boats that are well suited to rapid landing operations, have a much wider arsenal than the Russians. The range of possible operations has increased significantly.

In this war, we also miss the airborne operations, of which we have seen only a few, at Kyiv and at Odessa/ Mykolayiv. We would not be surprised if the Ukrainians pulled this card in a major operation. With effective air support, it could be done.

With the severe damage to the last Russian ferry capable of carrying train carriages, the occupiers no longer have any chance of carrying out logistics on such ferries. This means that the Kerch Bridge will increasingly be used for logistical operations. The Russians have launched an important new railway branch in the occupied territories, which will be essential to ensure the greatest possible logistics capacity. Soon, this should become a new target for Ukrainian missile strikes.

And finally. The occupiers' attempts to force the Ukrainians to the negotiating table continue unabated. It is well understood that the war is extremely painful for the Russian economy - through all channels they are trying to get rid of the sanctions, to come out of a very bad situation with their heads held high.

The Ukrainians understand the only possible solution is the complete capitulation of the Russians. And this must take place on the battlefield. Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, it seems that the Russians, even if they are scratching their heads, will still have enough resources to wage hostilities until the autumn/end of next year.

However, will the Russian economy have enough gunpowder when inflation is rising, interest rates are being raised, and there are no solutions to manage the situation. And the head of the National Bank of Russia says outright that she no longer has the means to manage the rapidly deteriorating situation in the economy. Less than 20% of the previous funds remain in the "Welfare" fund. The cost of the war is very high, literally.

Let us keep our fingers crossed that the Russian economy slows down as quickly as possible.

#ukraine #war #update

Wed, 24 Apr 2024 07:06:59 GMT

Concerns and prospects: Nothing new on the front. This we would like to start the review. Unfortunately, this is not the case, Ukrainian soldiers are being killed, combat equipment is being lost, but the front is holding. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2024-04-22-700-justas-gavenas-cmc-dg17f/

At the moment, we do not see any preconditions for a breakthrough, no matter how hard the Russians try. So far, their efforts have been crowned with failure and heavy losses. When we analyse the daily information on the destruction of combat equipment, we can only conclude that the Russians continue to lose, sometimes more than the Ukrainians. The type of equipment lost also differs. The Russians lose far more tanks and infantry fighting vehicles than the Ukrainians. The most common vehicles lost by the Ukrainians are pickup trucks.

This is not surprising, as the Ukrainians make heavy use of pick-up trucks, which guarantee mobility and flexibility in response to the situation. They certainly use heavy combat vehicles, but in mobile defence, the focus is very much on logistics, medical evacuation and so on.

We continue to see the Russians trying to find appropriate solutions on the battlefield. A wide range of tactics are being tried. Concentrated attacks based on heavy equipment, without combat equipment, mixed forces, with air and artillery support, night ‚invisible‘ attacks and so on. Fortunately, the Russians have not yet found a recipe for success and are unlikely to do so any time soon.

Until the expected serious support from the West (Europe and the US), innovation, motivation, ingenuity and stubbornness have saved the Ukrainians and continue to do so. Many sceptics have been saying that Ukraine has no people, no weapons, nothing and will not stand. These sceptics (with all due respect to them) have no idea of how wars are fought, of the complex processes that take place during wars. Let us admit that it is extremely difficult to remain positive and hope for victory when you are constantly under attack from Russian propaganda, interspersed with messages about how the Ukrainians lack everything.

If the Ukrainians are so short of everything, why is the front not collapsing? It cannot hold in the air. The answer is simple: there are not as many resources as one would like, but only enough to be at least minimally sufficient for a successful combat operation. We see timely deployment of reserves, their training, the provision of combat equipment and weapons, a manageable situation.

With broader support, we can expect an even more effective defence in the near future and, at some point, much more aggressive Ukrainian action. It is naive to expect that the Ukrainians, once they receive support, will immediately start to perform miracles. If they do happen, it will take some time and will be the result of a combination of circumstances.

Right now, coincidentally, a large package of support is expected to come from the West, with the F-16s reaching Ukraine (according to at least one donor country) before mid-summer. Ukraine will indeed be able to extend its freedom of action considerably, to limit the use of Russian aviation, not only to react but also to impose its own rules of the game. It is thanks to aviation that the Russians have been able to move forward very slowly, with heavy losses, but still to make progress.

Everyone is talking about the Russians making a big offensive in the summer, but we are much more interested in what the Ukrainians come up with. Once they have a strong ‚argument‘, the Ukrainians will undoubtedly make creative use of the resources they have acquired. We are expecting airborne operations, diversionary operations, strikes on critical rear areas, unexpected counter-attacks and front breaks, no-fly zones on the front line.

All this will happen, but today the Ukrainians have a new headache to deal with: the Russians‘ ability to conduct deep reconnaissance with unmanned aerial vehicles. The latter are sometimes able to operate in the Ukrainian rear, with complete impunity, up to 100 kilometres or more. This is a particularly important and dangerous element. It is for this reason that, in recent times, losses have been recorded that were previously non-existent or very few: radars, air defences, aviation, areas of concentration, command posts and so on.

We hear the Ukrainians‘ concerns and attempts to address this issue. We hope that with the new package of support, they will have the means to deal effectively with this problem. With or without the aid, this issue will sooner or later be resolved. Ukrainians need it as soon as possible and with as little damage as possible.

While they are solving this puzzle, the Ukrainians are, in parallel, very actively preparing the ground for the use of aid receivable and aviation. We are specifically singling out aviation in a separate block, because a great deal of activity is directed towards the effective introduction of this element (F-16s and their capabilities). Destruction of strategic level radars, the best Russian anti-aircraft systems, intelligence and command capabilities.

What the Ukrainians have managed to do lately is impressive to say the least, and perhaps not everyone is aware of the chain of events that links these events and where they are heading. For us, it is more than telling. We will only mention that the Russians are clearly looking for a recipe to counter the Ukrainians‘ ability to „disable“ one by one the component elements of air defence and control. So far without much success.

The time is not far off when the Russian air support system will start to break down, just as the Black Sea fleet has broken down, becoming a virtually powerless and disabled observer in the Black Sea region. Well, with few exceptions.

The breaking of this element will begin to break down the Russian defences and the ability to stand up to the Ukrainians. Unless the Russians „dig up“ some other interesting solution or exceptional support from the Axis of Evil countries. Let us remind you that every day they launch at least 100 Aviation bombs!!!The Russians are unable to break through the defences. Losing this element will be extremely difficult for the Russians.

Readers of the reviews will recall that the Russians compensated for the loss of artillery by firing tanks on an indirect trajectory and by exhausting the resources of the tubes. This was followed by the use of attack helicopters to compensate for the lack of artillery shells or tubes, the latter being „grounded“ one after the other. Now only aviation and its capabilities remained. How will it be able to compensate for the future loss of this capability? A very big question mark. „Хто зброєю вміло володіє, той ворогів здолає“- He who wields a weapon skilfully will defeat his enemies.

So we see today‘s situation as stably positive with an even more positive outlook for the future.

The same cannot be said for the Russians, their capabilities, their military industry or even their economy. By the way, it is precisely the latter that could be the Achilles heel for Putin and his clique.

#ukraine #war #updates

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 08:18:10 GMT

April 11, 2024 russia disinformation review Greetings from Russia: a trip from Kyiv to Korea By EUvsDisinfo

In the not-so-distant past, the slogan ‘From Vancouver to Vladivostok’ epitomised a system of international relations built on cooperation or at least a stable framework. In the large ‘OSCE Helsinki system’, the capitals of member states spanned from the North American west coast across Europe to Russia’s Far East.

From contact to conflict - The approach in Russia has changed as the recent week demonstrated with activity across virtually the same geography. It has been a busy week for pro-Kremlin trolls and manipulators as they tried to stem a tide of developments that Moscow’s own actions stimulated. Highlights include campaigns that seek to mask Russia’s naked aspirations in power politics. For example, the Kremlin has tried to prevent, slow, or block Ukraine’s process of Euro-Atlantic integration after EU and NATO decisions; spoil peace plans; blame Armenia for diversifying its international economic relations; and block international efforts to limit North Korea’s nuclear weapons programme.

Smear Kyiv and others for the Crocus City attacks -- Two of the Kremlin’s most important topics converged in recent weeks: the so-called ‘special operation’, or war, against Ukraine; and the terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall near Moscow on 22 March.

Our database illustrates that Russian state media are still trying to tie these events together and to make domestic and international audiences believe that even if ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack and heavily bruised Tajik nationals confessed to it, Ukraine was still the hand behind it. See our debunks of this assertion here and here. But behind Ukraine supposedly stand the sinister forces of the US, the EU, and the UK.

Dmitry Medvedev, Russian Security Council deputy chair and former president, has kept up his habit of making not only horrific nuclear threats, but he is now also blaming the US, the UK, and French and German leaders in assigning ISIS the task of carrying out the Crocus City attacks. Meanwhile, reports on the ground continue to document how Russian security services are rounding up Central Asian migrant workers.

A controversy kicked off when Secretary of the Russian Security Council and former FSB Director Nikolai Patrushev accused Ukraine’s embassy in Tajikistan of hiring local people to its foreign legion to fight against Russia. Needless to say, both Ukrainian and Tadjik authorities rejected this baseless claim designed to create the illusion of one great snake pit.

Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations and the ‘World War III’ reflex -- The Kremlin’s next ‘front’ is trying to stall Ukraine’s desire to draw closer to the EU and NATO. It was a serious blow for Kremlin trolls that EU leaders decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine in December 2023. More recent meetings have involved the EU, NATO, and Ukraine, so the challenge for the trolls is mounting.

The decision of NATO to prepare to assume a greater role in coordinating the flow of aid to Ukraine, which had taken place bilaterally or in the Ramstein format, has triggered what can perhaps be called the ‘World War III’ reflex of scaremongering. The Kremlin increasingly labels any move that goes against Moscow’s wishes and that involves the US, NATO, and significant military capabilities such as aircraft or missiles from any country as ‘leading to the inevitable confrontation between Russia and NATO/Europe/[the country in question]’ or ‘to direct confrontation’. Or, as Putin said after his re-election, we are ‘a step from World War III’.

Who owns the call for peace? -- Since the outlines for a future conference on peace in Ukraine were made public in January at the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and state outlets have worked hard to undermine this process. News of an upcoming meeting in June – a Global Peace Summit hosted in Lucerne, Switzerland – has accelerated Moscow’s activity.

Instead of using President Zelenskyy’s 10-point peace plan as starting point, Lavrov again reached out to Moscow-based representatives from Latin America, Middle East, Africa, and Asia, praising them as ‘the global majority’, before visiting China. Behind the façade of an equal Russian-Chinese partnership, the purpose is clearly to keep the Chinese away from Lucerne, to solicit Beijing’s support, and to praise the otherwise not actively promoted Chinese ‘12 points’. The last is far from a plan, roadmap, or design, but rather a sketchy outline of China’s own wishes regarding Ukraine.

Meanwhile, back with Armenia -- Another important topic during the week has been the accelerating Russian verbal attacks and attempts to manipulate the information space in and around Armenia. The main task is to prevent the Armenian government from diversifying its international partnerships. A separate task is to smear the EU Mission in Armenia, as we have documented in detail here.

Yerevan realised that Russia was not in a position to help during Azerbaijan’s campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh. Whether Moscow was unable or unwilling to help was of less importance than the end result: Nagorno-Karabakh was defenceless. Now, Armenia has suspended its participation in the Moscow-led CSTO and will not join the CIS Foreign Ministers meetings in Minsk on 12 April.

The EU-US-Armenia high level meeting in Brussels on 5 April, in which the EU and the US agreed to provide economic support to Armenia in the amounts of €270 million and $65 million, respectively, has been the target of broad criticism and verbal attacks across the pro-Kremlin ecosystem. Russian government and pro-Kremlin outlets called the Brussels meeting ‘catastrophic for Armenia’ and ‘a demonstration of a ‘dangerous geopolitical game, [and the] turn to the West and accelerated development of ties with the US and the EU [where] the Armenian leadership is not capable of having security guarantees’. A classic Kremlin tactic is to try splitting the people from their government.

And now to North Korea -- Manipulation and disinformation can also come in the form of silence and concealed facts. Russian actions towards Pyongyang are one such example. Given how important the arms supply from North Korea is to Russian war operations against Ukraine, the pro-Kremlin ecosystem provides only little information about cooperation between the two countries. Available intelligence and satellite images demonstrate, however, that North Korea is delivering massive amounts of artillery ammunition and other weapons to Russia.

It is embarrassing for Russian outlets and pro-Kremlin pundits that the proud heir to the Soviet Union’s military might has been forced to ask for help from a country as poor as North Korea. And from a country where the UN Security Council during the past 18 years has demonstrated rare unity toward curbing Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions. UNSC Resolution 1718 was adopted in October 2006 in response to a North Korean nuclear test. Enforcing non-proliferation on a rogue player like Kim Jong Un was once a matter of dignity. But no more. Russia recently vetoed a proposed UNSC resolution continuing the work of inspectors maintaining the non-proliferation sanctions regime.

Lavrov has previously stated that ‘the sanctions had been imposed amid a different geopolitical situation’. The ‘thing’ that has changed is not Kim’s nuclear ambitions. He regularly conducts new missile tests. But Russia is now like the beggar asking for help, and North Korea knows the price: eroding the sanctions regime.

Also on our disinformation radar this week -- NATO is waging a hybrid war against Russia on the territory of Ukraine -- Cry wolf. Cry it loudly and hope it will light up motivation in the Russian public ahead of the May festivities: the re-coronation of Putin on 7 May and the yearly 9 May parade. But even if repeated a hundred times, the basic fact remains: Putin and the Russian state started a war of aggression against Ukraine. Remove all the pathos, lies, and fluff, and all that remains is purely revanchist, imperialist, and militarist actions by Moscow.

France asked Russia not to touch the French military in Ukraine -- No. This is another example of a pro-Kremlin invention. This falsehoods relies on a misrepresentation of President Macron’s earlier statements and a conversation on 3 April between French and Russian ministers in the aftermath of the Crocus City Hall focussing on the terror attack and French condemnation of Russia’s war in Ukraine. But in classic Kremlin fashion, the conversation has been exploited to spin a story designed to sow mistrust and suspicion of hidden agendas between members of NATO, the EU, and Ukraine.

Zelenskyy bought a British mansion from King Charles III for 20 million pounds -- No, pure fantasy. As this tour d’horizon began with the Kremlin’s attempts to smear Ukraine, we end it with a campaign against President Zelenskyy that illustrates another trending feature: ‘disinfo laundering’. Here’s the recipe. A scandalous story gets invented by trolls who add shocking emotions provoked by money, murder, and sex as click bait. The story is planted in what are made to look like credible news sites, but they were wholly invented for the purpose of smearing. Then the piece is AI- and bot-boosted, and translated. Like a worm, it infiltrates mainstream media landscapes around the world. Finally, it surfaces back in the mother ship, or rather, well-known pro-Kremlin outlets. See this research explaining and visualising the disinfo laundering process.

Mon, 08 Apr 2024 11:04:52 GMT

UKRAINE, status update, 2024-04-08 War Relocation

After a rather long break, we present an overview of the war in Ukraine. There have been numerous notable events both inside and outside Ukraine during last month and a half or so.

Highlights -- After a rather long break, we present an overview of the war in Ukraine. There have been numerous notable events both inside and outside Ukraine during last month and a half or so.

Highlights

Ukraine will be supplied with a large quantity of artillery ammunition. If our crystal ball does not lie, this will happen indeed, and Ukraine will not feel the hunger for artillery shells for at least next six months, if not more. This is not only due to the Czech Republic's discovery of more than 1 million shells, for which money has been found but it is also related to a rapid increase in the production of artillery shells in the West.

The withdrawal from Avdijivka was both timely and expedient. The Russians, as the saying goes, failed to "sit on the shoulders of the retreating Ukrainian units" and to make a success of it. The retreat was coordinated, even though Ukrainians could not avoid casualties. The new line of defense is exactly where we expected it to be, taking advantage of the natural terrain. The Russians are not favored by such a situation. It is no wonder that the Russian losses and the failure of the offensive have been enormous.

The Russians are basically trying to change their offensive tactics and to use mechanized units to carry out their offensive actions in a different way than has been the norm in this war. In recent weeks we have seen offensives that do not involve single tanks or infantry supported by up to a tank platoon (3-4 tanks). We are now seeing attacks involving tank companies (10-12 tanks) or even battalion-sized units (30+ tanks). This is an attempt to use tanks for their classical purpose - tanks are meant to demonstrate firepower and maneuverability.

Almost certainly this is based on the belief that the Ukrainians do not have enough artillery support and will be able to overcome suicide drone attacks. To combat FPV (suicide drones), the Russians are throwing tanks onto the battlefield, equipped with radio-electronic warfare devices designed to combat drones. The formats for the use of such tools vary widely, from single to mass deployments and combinations of tools. The Russians are looking for recipes for success. Fortunately, they have not yet found them, but the trend is clear: the fight against FPV drones is becoming a priority task for both sides. We assume that in the next 6 to 12 months, FV drones will face very significant challenges, although their use will remain very intense simply because the number and variety of targets is so great. The Ukrainian decision to take a defensive position is very logical and timely. Knowing how many promised resources have not been provided, knowing how many problems there have been with unreliable Western combat equipment and weaponry, the Ukrainians had no choice but to go on the defensive, which, in our view, has been conducted very successfully so far. However, all this is taking place on a front where the Russians are trying to increase the intensity as much as possible. Their aim is very clear: to exhaust the Ukrainians, in the hope that at some point the lack of resources will lead to a break in the front. For the time being, we do not see this as a possibility, because there are sufficient resources for defense.

Interestingly, we have not yet seen some of the very important combat equipment and weaponry provided to the Ukrainians in action. There are many signs of the building up and "hiding" of certain capabilities within the Ukrainian ranks. This correlates with the news that the Ukrainians are no longer sharing their war plans with the Western countries that are contributing their resources. This is a lesson from the unsuccessful counter-offensive last year. We can now safely say that the Russians knew all the details of the planning for the last counter-offensive. The Ukrainians have no doubt that the information was leaked through some of their partners. The more secrecy, the more likely it is that the enemy will not be prepared for what the Ukrainians have planned.

We continue to see a gradual decline in the level of Russian fighting techniques. Extremely heavy losses are very painful for the Russians. The fact that the destruction of certain Russian self-propelled artillery assets at the front has been drastically reduced is worth mentioning. This shows that the Russians have lost a great many of these weapons and are compensating for the loss with much older and vastly inferior systems. The Russians are trying to store, rebuild, produce, and upgrade some of the systems. However, the Russian industrial capacity is clearly unable to cover the losses on the front line. It would be difficult to expect them to be able to do so in any immediate future, as production resources are very limited and extremely difficult to develop.

Perhaps the Russians' greatest advantage now is their ability to use military aviation, both tactical and strategic. For the Ukrainians, it is still a difficult conundrum to solve, as they have not received the F-16s promised a year ago (!!!). Yes, these measures will be very effective, but we can already see that the late delivery of these fighters is extremely late and very painful for the Ukrainians. We can also only conclude that their effectiveness on the battlefield will be far less than it would have been as a surprise to the Russian occupiers.

Unable to succeed on the battlefield, the Russians are trying to return to their previous strategy of putting enormous pressure on the Ukrainian population by destroying the energy supply system. This is also increasing the pressure on the Ukrainian economy. Unfortunately, however, here the Ukrainians are almost entirely dependent on Western support and arms supplies. As Ukrainian folk wisdom has it, Зі світу по нитці — Путлеру мотузка' means 'from the World by a thread, to make a rope for Putin'.

Aware of the fact that there are issues that they will not be able to resolve on their own, the Ukrainians have adopted and started to implement a very ambitious objective - to move the war to Putin's territory. The raids and attacks on the Russian border areas are very valuable. This is forcing the Russians to devote considerable attention to reacting, redeploying capabilities, etc.

The number of measures and actions employed by Ukrainians is clear. If in the past there were sporadic strikes on military or military-industrial facilities and the destruction of one transport hub after another. Now, the aim is very obvious - to destroy what makes the Russian economy breathe and function - energy resources and their exports.

The successful attacks on oil refineries are only the beginning of this. Already, the Russians are being forced to restrict their exports of oil products and even to engage in imports. And all this has been done in just over a month. Power stations have also become an excellent target, as have oil pipelines and other infrastructure. If we forecast the Ukrainian plans correctly, there should be a huge number of strikes in the coming months on a wide range of objects connected with oil and gas resources - factories, pipelines, pumping stations, terminals, ports, etc. The aim is to paralyze the Russians where they were and are strongest.

To sum up, the Russians are not doing well on the battlefield so far, but they continue to spare no resources. The Ukrainians are taking the war into Putin's territory. The Ukrainians badly need more air defense systems to protect their infrastructure. The status quo on the battlefield/frontline should continue for at least some time.

#ukraine #war #update

Mon, 11 Mar 2024 08:00:35 GMT

WARRIORS OF LIGHT -- An international robotics competition is taking place in Italy these days. The strongest European teams are competing for the chance to go to the world competition (equivalent to the Robotics Olympics) in Houston, USA. Hundreds, if not thousands, of hours of hard work, dozens of sleepless nights, constant training, redesigning and improving the robots. All this just to take advantage of the unique opportunity to qualify for the World Championships and thus promote Lithuania.

From the first moment Lithuanian teams found out that russian teams would be participating in the championship in Italy, we had to rethink everything we were doing. Unique chance or value principles? One decision to write off all your hard work or to stand up for principles, for freedom, for democracy, for your Ukrainian teammate. Protests were written asking for the russians to be excluded - rejected by the organisers. Requests were made not to pair up with russians - promises were made, but not kept. Finally, it was a time of difficult decisions - to participate with russian teams in alliances against each other or not.

It is a situation where the minds and hearts of these young people have had to make decisions that adults are often unable to make themselves. And they made those decisions - they refused to take part in the battles with the russians, they lost points that were so necessary for their teams, even though they were one of the leaders in these competitions. They simply raised the flags of Lithuania and Ukraine and held them up until those difficult minutes of their absence. Many of them were probably trembling inside, perhaps heroically holding back tears. But these were the strongest minutes of their silence and resistance. The kind that many of our sports federations and the Olympic Committee cannot do.

You are our WARRIORS OF LIGHT. I am proud of you!

#LituanicaX #Ukraine #SlavaUkraini

Fri, 16 Feb 2024 13:16:42 GMT

Cemetary - Over the past month, media and bloggers have been reporting on the catastrophic situation in Avdiivka. There is an urgent need to retreat, to abandon positions and to avoid the deaths of soldiers. Link to source in reply to post 1.

In this case, all those screamers were wrong. The officers in charge of the battles in Avdiivka are defending this city with extraordinary success. What do we mean by extremely successful? The Russian military bloggers themselves admit that Avdiivka has become a second Bakhmut - a place of slaughter for the Sikhs. Here, Putin's henchmen, according to the most modest estimates, have lost over 22 000 soldiers, and the number of wounded is no less. They also lost over 1.000(!) combat equipment.

After the capture of Bakhmut, it became clear that Wagner's group had lost 70-80% of its strength and was forced to withdraw from the battlefield to make way for regular units.

In the direction of Avdiivka, the losses are easy enough to determine, because here the rotation of Russian units was very intense and frequent, which means nothing less than the loss of a certain combat capability. A true cemetary.

Judging by the size of the units and the frequency of their rotation on the Ukrainian side, it is apparent that the losses of the attacking and defending forces are completely different. A conservative estimate is that there are at least 7 to 8 Russians per Ukrainian killed. In recent weeks, when the Russian offensive has become particularly intense, this ratio could have reached 15 to 20 Russians killed per Ukrainian soldier.

For this reason, it was advisable to defend the position until the very last minute, even though the risk of encirclement was increasing.

The retreat from part of Avdiivka was, in our estimation, almost perfect, although there were wounded and possibly killed soldiers. Waiting until the last possible moment, with maximum losses to the Russians, and still extracting all the troops, was a great achievement.

Avdiivka will not last, and there is no point in keeping it. Even in their worst nightmare, the Russians could not have imagined that they would suffer such losses in this direction. They will be short of the victories needed for Putin to boast. Preparations are clearly under way in the Kremlin for a pompous declaration of victory.

You can just imagine Putin declaring the capture of Avdiivka as a major victory. The reality is quite different - Avdiivka is of no strategic significance, and serious Russian military capability has been wasted. There are more than 100 cities in Ukraine bigger than Avdiivka!

When the Ukrainian troops withdraw from Avdiivka, we ask you, the readers of our reviews, to rejoice in the fact that here the Ukrainians, with very limited forces, have made spectacular gains rather than suffered defeat. These gains will certainly have an impact on the future course of the war, just as they did after Bakhmut, when the Russians had to take a tactical pause, regroup, and rebuild their losses. And eventually they even lost the Bakhmut approaches.

We hear it said that now the Russians will be able to attack, to create a bridgehead by taking Avdiivka. Look at the whole front, how many such bridgeheads the Russians have - Kupiansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, etc. Everywhere we see a powerful Ukrainian meat grinder of Russian troops. The losses suffered by the Russians are impressive and the results are extremely modest.

Pundits also say that the Russians have an infinite amount of 'meat' to throw onto the battlefield. We hear a lot of speculation on that subject. The math is simple - if Putin has 140 million inhabitants and Ukraine 40 million, the ratio is roughly 3.5:1 in favor of the Russians. How can it be that the Russians have unlimited meat resources if the losses are 7-8:1? Thus, even in the most elementary mathematical calculations, the Russians have at least 2x less manpower resources than the Ukrainians, given the ratio of losses on the battlefield.

The Russians need results at all costs before the March elections. The only conclusion that can be drawn from the fact that we see attacking units on the battlefield moving not in small groups of 5-7 soldiers, but in groups of 50+ soldiers. The Russians have been given the task of showing results AT ANY COST.

The Ukrainians are sweeping up units of this size without mercy, hence the massive increase in Russian forces losses. Unfortunately, however, some of those larger attack groups manage to survive and hold on to one or other positions. As a result, the Ukrainians are forced to maneuver defensively and not to cling to terrain.

The Ukrainians have added and installed numerous defense lines and fortifications along the entire front line. This kind of maneuver-based defensive warfare suits the Ukrainians. It could go on for a very long time, provided there are no major breaches of the defense lines, which we very much doubt would happen. For the time being, we do not see any preconditions for this.

We are much more interested in the fact that what are the Ukrainians doing?

Let us recall that the Ukrainians continue to successfully, albeit slowly, expand their bridgehead on the Dnipro River, and regularly bite and counterattack the Russians at various points on the front. In this way, they are muting Russian plans, because the Russians must react to every such action.

We do not expect the Ukrainians to undertake any major operations on the front until the arrival of aviation. We have already seen last summer how this could end without air support. Once the F-16s are available, the mechanized forces that have been built up can be thrown into the battlefield. Aviation support is a crucial element in exploiting and protecting mechanized capabilities. And the Ukrainians have good ones. Ready-made combat brigades, placed in the rear, waiting to be thrown into the fray.

This factor makes it clear why the Ukrainians are focusing on defense, saving resources, saving soldiers' lives and focusing on maintaining the status quo rather than offensive operations.

Our assessment is that the situation is stable, with excellent results. Unfortunately, many people see the war as linear, i.e. there are trenches, the more territory you take the closer you get to victory and so on. We in the military see war as a very complex entity. We see the Russian capabilities falling, except in terms of manpower, and the Ukrainian capabilities, which tend to grow, except in terms of ammunition (temporary and to be resolved in the short term).

We are witnessing declining Russian morale, increasing losses which they have no means of repairing, very limited growth of Russian military industry, etc.

That is where the whole beautiful picture comes in. The Russian forces are clearly dwindling, still able to wrest some ammunition and weapons from the bad guys. But the trend is relentless.

Guess why the Russians are again broadcasting invitations to come to the negotiating table on various channels? The signals are coming from different directions, and they are many. To have a stronger effect and to be heard by all, they are being reinforced by desperate actions on the front line, by a show of 'might', and by highly targeted information campaigns.

Putin is particularly pained not only by the hostilities in Ukraine, but also by the rapidly deteriorating economic situation. Looking deeper, the picture of the Russian economy is very bleak:

Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and other infrastructure have led to a sharp drop in exports of petroleum products, which is reducing budget revenues

Shadow tanker fleet loses around 50% of oil transport capacity after sanctions extended

Major Chinese banks are no longer serving Russian clients (talking about oil trade) because they fear the secondary effects of sanctions

The Russians have started to sell their gold reserves. So far, slowly, but the process has already started, although they have been holding back until now. This is an attempt to rebuild currency reserves

The Russians have withdrawn record amounts of money from the banks in the last few months. What is threatening the stability of the banks and cutting through currency reserves

Diamond exports burdened by sanctions

The Russians can only spend the Indian rupees they receive from oil on purchases in India. No one really needs rupees. So, exports to India fell sharply in December.

The bottom line is that whatever figures the Russians claim about a “growing” economy, etc., the situation in reality is deteriorating rapidly, and the budget is under enormous pressure from all sides. Oil production is declining, currency reserves are depleting rapidly. And it is still mid-February.

Putin is aware of this and is trying his best to show that everything is fine and that we will win the war, but he himself is aware that this is just a disguise, and that the reality is brutal - the army is shattered, the economy is being crushed, and he himself, has no other way out than to the Hague Tribunal. And we will wish him all the best! We will end with the Ukrainian folk wisdom - "Війна це велике болото: легко влізти, але важко вибратися" - War is a big swamp: it is easy to get in, but hard to get out.

#ukraine #war #update

Mon, 12 Feb 2024 09:36:32 GMT

Winning at all costs

Update/commentary from Justas Gavenas on 09 February 2024. Link in the reply to post #1.

Yesterday it was officially announced that the Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander has been replaced. The new Commander of the Armed Forces is Commander of the Land Forces, General Sirsky. A great deal of speculation and assessment on this subject is reaching our ears. That this is a political struggle and that Zelensky has allegedly cracked down on Zaluzhnyj.

We do not know the real reasons for the sacking, and we may not find out any time soon. In our estimation, the replacement of the army commander is a very important event, but it must be accepted as a normal working process. Leading the army at such a responsible time is a matter of particular complexity. The pressure on the Commander is enormous and the workload is hard to imagine.

It may be news to some, but a military commander must not only direct the conduct of combat actions, but he must also ensure that the necessary laws are in place, that diplomatic action is taken with the leaders of other countries, that he participates in the political life of the country (in a different form of participation from that of the politicians), that he reforms the military forces and so on.

In other words, the commander has a very wide range of tasks. In our opinion, Zaluzhnyj, who has done his duty, has become tired of the excessive workload and the pressure from politicians and the public.

We must pay tribute to what Zaluzhnyj has done and move on. We hope that the new commander, who has a different profile and personality to Zaluzhnyj, will be an excellent army commander who will be able to lead Ukraine to victory.

We are not going to be critical of the new commander, because he has done a great deal during this war. All the more so because the commander of the army does not act alone, but has his own team and staff under his command. All the expertise remains, and the guidance and decision-making of the commander is exactly what we call the leadership of the army.

The situation on the front is tense, the Russians need victories, they need results. At all costs. We are surprised when we calculate their losses. This cannot be an endless exercise. At some point there is a hangover and the consequences of such actions become apparent.

At Bakhmut, the Russians have largely lost the Wagner Group, in the south the elite airborne forces, at Avdiivka the Russians have already lost a huge amount of combat equipment and manpower.

Avdiivka had already played its role, and played it well. It seems that the time is approaching to retreat from this place and to prevent the encirclement of Ukrainian units.

The Ukrainians are talking loudly about the lack of artillery ammunition and the loss of manpower. The war machine is crushing the lives of Ukrainian soldiers as well. Just not at the same rate as the Russian nazis.

At the moment, preparations are undoubtedly being made by both sides for the warm season, in the hope of gaining a substantial advantage in the war in the summer-autumn. Only this time, no one is shouting about a future counter-offensive.

At the same time, the Ukrainians are not slowing down – they are targeting the Russian sacred cow, the oil and gas sector. The Russian losses here are very high – by hitting oil refineries, gas and oil infrastructure, the Ukrainians have already severely undermined Russian export opportunities and are gradually leading the Russians to the point where they will no longer be able to supply themselves with the oil products they need.

This is a very important direction and it will be interesting to see how the Russians will be able to counter this risk. In our estimation, it is impossible to do so in such a large country. It is not only drones that can attack such facilities. And we have already seen that the Ukrainians are very creative.

The current events, both on the front line and behind it, are most influenced today by the upcoming pseudo-presidential elections in Russia. He needs results, and soon. Imagine that Putin will boast to the nation that he has achieved a great victory by capturing Avdiivka – the punchline of a joke. It is such a trivial achievement on the scale of the war that we do not even have anything to say.

And most of what is happening on the front line is due precisely to the forthcoming elections. In the coming months, we must see a Russian intensification, which has already begun on the whole front, or at least in some parts of it.

The Ukrainians, for their part, are clinging by the skin of their teeth to the occupied territories on the left bank of the Dnipro. If these gains can be consolidated, then the Russian situation will begin to deteriorate sharply. “Bід світaння до смеркання” – from dawn to dusk, as the Ukrainians say.

On the other hand, the Ukrainians, with their limited resources, are trying to inflict as many losses as possible on the Russians and to preserve their military capability. This objective is the reason for the current performance of the Ukrainian forces.

However, let us not be fooled by this picture. We should see at least one serious and successful Ukrainian ground operation before the autumn. However, this will require resolving the Crimean bridge issue, the issue of the blocking of the land logistics corridor in the occupied territories and the arrival of modern military aviation.

Many may have a gloomy picture when they think of the bleak outlook, but we see a different picture in the course of this war. All we can do is to support the Ukrainians, to stand by them with all our might and to look forward to a successful end to the war.

#ukraine #war #updates

Sun, 07 Jan 2024 13:24:31 GMT

Best Ukraine updates and analysis I've come across. The link to the original will be a reply to this first post in the thread.

Drone rain

A lot has happened since the last review although there are no major changes on the front line. The Russians continue trying to take the initiative on the battlefield. They are not very successful in doing so, although they are trying to give the impression that major gains are being made.

Taking one village or another is not an achievement, especially in view of the heavy losses that are constantly being inflicted. The Russians are losing large numbers of combat equipment, weapons, and manpower. It is notable that the Russian side attempts to 'explore' the front and to attack in different forms: with or without the support of combat vehicles, with smaller, larger groups of troops, etc.

It can be concluded that the Russians are trying to find a solution to attack the Ukrainians and take positions. One way the Russians have found is to use suicide drones to attack Ukrainian positions, fortifications, pillboxes, and other engineering structures. If one drone attacks an object, it does not cause much damage to the fortifications, but if they are attacked by many drones one after the other, then the fortifications are no longer able to withstand it, and it is much easier for the Russians to take over the Ukrainian positions.

This tactic requires many drones, but it is much cheaper than using artillery or combat vehicles. For the time being, this tactical element is only a small fragment in this war and cannot fully replace expensive and powerful war machines.

The Ukrainians still hold several bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro. There is no reason to expect this to grow into anything serious yet. We see this more as an opportunity to force the Russians to withdraw forces from other directions. However, we do not know the real plans of the Ukrainians, which may be much more ambitious than just misguiding the enemy forces.

We are seeing less artillery activity from the Ukrainians, and the need to conserve ammunition is beginning to be felt. This is partly being replaced by suicide drones. We do not expect a critical reduction in the supply of artillery ammunition. The Ukrainians will have to limit their use of artillery ammunition to some extent, but it should not be a significant reduction.

The Ukrainians have announced plans to mobilize 500,000 men into the army. If the situation is extremely difficult and the losses are enormous, much larger mobilization would be needed. This shows that the Ukrainians, although suffering heavy losses, can fight with much lower casualties than the Russians.

Unable to move forward, the Russians are forced to try to break Ukrainian logistics, military industry, and military facilities behind the scenes - throughout Ukraine. We have already mentioned in previous reviews that many of the missile and drone strikes are not aimed at residential targets or civilian infrastructure.

The strikes on infrastructure remain, but the Russians are now focusing on undermining military capabilities away from the front.

The Ukrainians were already developing their military industry and building up their capabilities quite strongly before the war. During the war, this growth in capacity has been growing by orders of magnitude. This is unfortunate for the Russians, because it means that the Ukrainians can build up their military muscle on their own. It will not be enough by itself, of course, but it is becoming a very important element in the war. Drones, armored vehicles, tanks, artillery, and missile systems, etc.

The Russian military industry is now in a golden age, with state orders pouring in like a cornucopia. The Russians have far greater military potential, because their military industry is incomparably larger and has more potential than the Ukrainians. However, the Ukrainian industry can exploit the technological know-how of the western countries, which is a very important qualitative factor.

The New Year's missile and drone strikes largely failed to achieve their objectives. Only a small number of targets in the interior of Ukraine were destroyed. It is safe to say that the attacks were successfully repelled, even though they were exceptionally large in scale. We can expect more such attacks in the days ahead. Logic suggests that this should be the most realistic scenario for the Russians. The main question is whether the Russians can afford it.

They have some stockpiles, but the components found in several missile nomenclatures prove that these missiles were manufactured in recent months. In other words, they were not taken off the shelf, but off the conveyor belt. It can be assumed that the Russians do not have large stocks of missiles. By large, we mean in the thousands.

There is talk that the Ukrainians need to change their strategy and focus on defense.

We completely disagree with this suggestion because the Ukrainian strategy is very logical and effective. Unfortunately, the Russians can inflate the bubble and give the impression that the Russians are winning on the battlefield.

What we are talking about is that the Ukrainian strategy is based on several key elements - the undermining of individual military capabilities and the infliction of maximum casualties on the living force.

The Ukrainians have deliberately limited the capabilities of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, drastically reduced the capabilities of attack helicopters, expanded the 'no-fly' zone over the occupied territories, and are destroying logistical components, air surveillance, air defense and other elements.

So, step by step, the Ukrainians are starting to poke holes in the Russian war picture. As the Russians lose one or another capability, they must make up for it in some way, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to do so.

Not only are the Ukrainians destroying Russian capabilities in a highly targeted manner, but we have been waiting for some time for action that will open the use of the F-16s that are coming in. This requires a drastic reduction in Russian surveillance, electronic warfare, and air defense capabilities in the occupied territories, or on the approaches to Ukraine.

We saw just one of these powerful operations yesterday evening and last night, when the Ukrainians, with the help of drones and missiles, launched massive strikes against military installations in numerous locations. This is the first such powerful Ukrainian "move" away from the front. There have been strikes before, but their geography and scope have been more modest.

Such successful strikes not only undermine Russian capabilities, but also provide one crucial advantage: they cut deeply into Russian morale. Both military and civilian. For Putin, the most important thing is to have public support. This can waver when bad news breaks, especially if the news is not even from the occupied territories but from inside Russia.

Ideally, the Ukrainians should win the war not by pushing the front line, although that is also important, but by forcing the Russians to admit that they will not be able to hold on to what they have occupied. This can be achieved by strikes in the rear, far from the front, paralyzing logistics or the use of military capabilities.

Finally, on support. The Russians have received large quantities of ammunition, munitions, weapons and missiles from North Korea, drones and ammunition and weapons from Iran. If it had not been for these two countries, the Russians would have suffered major defeats on the front line, but they were saved by military support from countries whose capabilities seemed infinitely inferior to the Russians.

Europe seems to have woken up and, with some exceptions, is making a major effort to arm itself and Ukraine. The war industry has started to work. The realization that war might come to the West has led to increasing support for Ukraine from these countries. Let us hope that it will only increase. Even if the US does not give more military aid to Ukraine, the Ukrainians will receive aid from other countries, albeit at a much lower level. It is important to realize that the Ukrainians have the means to 'organize' themselves whatever happens and not surrender to the Russians. Let us remember that at the beginning of the war the Ukrainians had much less than they have now.

We have a feeling that in the near future we will see a lot of good fireworks and crying Russians. As for the Ukrainians - "Поки нація бореться, вона живе!" - while the nation fights, it lives!

#ukraine #war #update

Sun, 07 Jan 2024 13:22:05 GMT

Sun, 07 Jan 2024 13:22:04 GMT

Thu, 28 Dec 2023 07:27:15 GMT

2023 WRAP-UP from https://euvsdisinfo.eu/

The Kremlin recycled many tired disinformation tropes in 2023, targeting Ukraine and it's supporters with absurd lies. From seeing 'Russophobia' and biolabs everywhere, to calling everyone a Nazi, 2024 will likely bring more of the same, but we will not be deceived.

The Kremlin’s master Putin is the bad Santa of disinformation. Every year, he returns to give a huge baskets of gifts we never wanted. In 2023, he passed out many awful presents. Meanwhile, his army of trolls – all disinformation manufacturers and pushers – worked hard to spread his big bags of lies.

So this holiday season, we at EUvsDisinfo take a moment to make a Christmas list of sorts, detailing the naughtiest instances of pro-Kremlin manipulative behaviour. This might give a hint about what is in store for 2024.

Unwanted gifts, re-gifted again and again: what didn’t change in 2023

Sometimes relatives re-gift the same old gift to each other, over and over again. Usually it’s a present that you didn’t want in the first place, like an oversized jumper or an ugly tie. Many pro-Kremlin disinformation narratives this year felt like these re-gifted, unwanted presents.

For example, not surprisingly in the Kremlin’s twisted alternative reality, Ukraine is still very bad and doing very, very, very bad things. It’s still a Nazi, terrorist, Satanic country that commits war crimes, fakes Russian war crimes, exploits children for sexual trafficking, harvests and sells human organs and even children’s organs, and is preparing covert biological and nuclear attacks to order to blame their consequences on Russia. Not exactly the sort of thing that puts one in the holiday spirit.

Yet more ridiculous whoppers lie at the bottom of this sordid stocking. According to the spinners of Russia’s nightmarish fantasy tales, Western countries are also still very bad and doing bad, bad things. Devious Westerners have nothing else to do than to be Russophobic and to spread instability and chaos wherever they can. In case you’re wondering, when pro-Kremlin commentators call you Russophobic, it often means you are daring to oppose Russian bullying of the country’s smaller neighbours.

And if Western countries aren’t full-on Nazi – although on the Kremlin’s black list Canada definitely is – then they’re certainly Nazi-curious. According to this holiday fever-dream, the West is trying Nazism out, as you would try out a fresh pair of New Year’s trousers at the shop. By the way, Canada isn’t just Nazi. It’s a monstrous woke machine.

This list wouldn’t be complete if it didn’t include re-gifted presents that were full-on crazy. These rambling assertions, for example, claim that Ukrainians aren’t fighting Russians at all. In fact, Ukrainians are fighting alongside Russians against Polish or black American mercenaries on the side of Ukraine’s armed forces. Nothing spices up the Kremlin’s Christmas fruitcake like a dash of racism.

New ‘goodies’ for the new year?

So those are the wretched, pro-Kremlin gifts of yesterday. But do we have any indication of what the hellish ovens of bad Santa’s trolls might be cooking up for the year to come?

In the latter half of the year, pro-Kremlin outlets and commentators spread disinformation narratives proclaiming Russia’s alleged emergence as a leader among mostly southern and eastern countries. In this increasingly prominent third batch of disinformation messages, Russia is, if not exactly good, at least better at pretty much everything. And definitely better than the sunset-empire of the collapsing, decadent Europe where according to the Kremlin-lingo LGBT-Gayropa rule. We recently documented this particular nasty trend of sexual-toned disinformation and manipulation.

Other gifts in the bag feature outlets routinely aired claims that Russian military equipment is far superior to that of Western countries with the glee reserved for hanging shiny ornaments on trees. They also trumpeted, again and again, assertions that Russia is fighting the entire assembled might of the ‘collective West’ and NATO and winning nonetheless.

Other stories have claimed that little old Russia is not a threat to anyone, and that it was the wicked West that is to blame for Russia’s illegal and illegitimate decision to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine. As the twisted logic goes in Moscow: We bomb to advance peace.

Like a lonely holiday caroller singing as loudly as possible to distract from the lack of fellow singers, outlets and commentators proclaimed that Russia is not alone but is, in fact, a leader of the emerging multipolar world.

Taken together, the disinformation narratives point towards a post-conflict vision of Russia flying majestically over the world like Santa and his sled on Christmas Eve. Unfortunately for the Kremlin, both images are fairy tales. But this particular tale might come back to us again as 2024 moves along.

Old lies, new ways of telling them

Finally, as we gaze into a snow globe containing a miniature Kremlin and a miniature Putin dressed as a very bad Santa sitting on top of it, we should also call attention to a Kremlin tactic we will likely see more of in the future. Namely, pro-Kremlin disinformation spreaders will apply old disinformation narratives to new events.

For some time, pro-Kremlin outlets have alleged without evidence that Ukrainian authorities are selling Western weapons on the black market. Stories across outlets have alleged that these weapons have been diverted to countries in the Middle East, to the Taliban, to anyone else in the world, and even to rioters in Europe.

So it was no surprise when, after Hamas’ 7 October assault on Israel, pro-Kremlin outlets and pundits immediately began to allege that Ukraine had sold Western weapons to Hamas. A variety of fake stories, distributed by impersonating credible organisations like the BBC and Bellingcat, were unwrapped to give this allegation weight. They were quickly debunked. It is possible, however, that Russia may be diverting Western weapons that it has captured on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Prepare for 2024

We should also look forward to old, undesired gifts repurposed for new uses that are equally objectionable. Over the past year, Russian disinformation as become more standardised, regimented, and fatuous. It consists of continuous cries that Ukraine is bad, the West is bad, and Russia is better. The Kremlin adapts these fundamental messages to fit any new event or situation.

We hope you had a chance to follow our December Calendar featuring the wildest disinfo claims of the year.

Don’t be deceived. Check the EUvsDisinfo database

We wish you all a great holiday season!

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 08:37:20 GMT

Another Ukraine update. These guys have great sources and have not been wrong yet.

A lame, old cow https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2023-12-06-0700-justas-gavenas-cmc-jkrkc/?trackingId=QqN1b87hT6CfutE56%2FU03w%3D%3D

Watching and listening to today's debate on the war in Ukraine, one has the impression that the sky is falling. The information space is full of negative messages, emotions, and predictions from people who take on the role of experts in commenting on the situation in Ukraine. This review will be a collection of as many specific, reasoned statements as possible to cover as many issues as possible.

We will start with the information battlefield, where the Russians seem to have succeeded in imposing the rules of the game on the Ukrainians, at least for a while. The media are abuzz with reports of an alleged conflict between the Ukrainian President and the head of the armed forces. We have not seen any evidence of such a conflict, but the sources from which this information comes are obviously very dubious characters, albeit Ukrainian.

Apart from this, another widely commented topic is the alleged Ukrainian failures on the battlefield. Yes, the summer counter-offensive did not achieve its objectives, but it did not remain empty. Many had hoped, including us, that we would be able to break through the Russian defenses. Unfortunately, the lack of weapons and air support while facing a well prepared and coordinated defense all pointed to one obvious fact: the Russians knew when and where the attack would take place. There was a definite leakage of information - the dissemination of the details of the planned information between the different actors in the preparation phase was too great.

The message is simple - the West is late in supporting Ukraine. This is a fact!

This is also proven by the fact that the Ukrainians were supposed to launch their counterattack with minimal air support. It was only after a stalled offensive that the Ukrainians received cluster munitions. As well as ATACMS missiles with cluster munitions, which very effectively "disabled" for several months one of the main means by which the Russians were able to launch highly successful strikes against the Ukrainian fighting vehicles - the efficient Ka-52 attack helicopters. As a result of several strikes, the Russians have suffered an impressive amount of aerial damage, especially to the Ka-52. The latter are now very rare on the battlefield, as are the Russian assault jet aircraft.

However, the Russians have been very successful in using aircraft capable of launching flying bombs. This is a very effective tool which the Ukrainians cannot stop for the time being. F-16 fighter jets equipped with the right weapons would be an excellent counterweight and a direct threat to the use of Russian aviation. Unfortunately, again, they will reach Ukraine "someday” while they are surely needed now!

As far as failures on the battlefield are concerned, we can now talk about Russian failures, not Ukrainian ones. The Ukrainians are focused on inflicting as much damage as possible on the Russians. They counter-attack whenever possible, albeit mostly at the tactical level.

If many feel that the Russian forces are limitless and that the pool of combat equipment is inexhaustible, they should look at the models and condition of the combat equipment used for offensive action. The degradation of Russian combat equipment continues to be evident. The decline in the number of modern combat vehicles is evident from an analysis of the loss categories.

What the Russians do not lack, like the Ukrainians, are suicide drones. Parity between forces can be said to have been achieved here. In terms of efficiency, the Ukrainians are more successful and much more creative in their use of limited resources.

Thanks to them, they can keep the left bank of the Dnipro River occupied, while the Russians are not allowed to move freely and carry out logistics. If the Russians fail in dislodging the Ukrainian troops, the Russians could face a very difficult situation in this region.

The front has already been expanded, the Russians have been forced to react, to push reserves, and the approaches to the Dnipro have become the direction of a potential river crossing by the Ukrainians. This is an uncomfortable situation, as it directly undermines the Russian ambition to take the initiative at Kupiansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, Avdiivka or Robotine.

The failure of the attempt to cut off Russian access to the Crimea by land has undoubtedly led the Ukrainians to rethink their strategy for warfare on the battlefield. We will share our observations on what this could be and how it could be implemented. We will preface this by saying that military support from the West is a major factor in this.

The Ukrainians focused heavily on limiting the Russian aviation factor at the beginning of the autumn, and the strikes on air bases dealt a very serious blow to the forces using attack helicopters. The destruction of air defense elements in the occupied territories and in occupied Crimea was crowned with great success. The fact that the Russian occupiers have transferred the most modern and powerful air defense systems from the Kaliningrad region to Crimea shows that the losses are extremely painful. It is also a sign that the Russians are preparing for the strengthening of Ukrainian aviation.

The Russian fleet in the Black Sea has become a lame old cow. Yes, it is still producing milk (it can launch missiles at Ukraine), but it is exhausted, and the milk yield is very poor. Ukrainian grain exports by sea are a living proof of this. The elimination of the Russian navy's ability to conduct landing, reconnaissance and fire support operations has opened opportunities for the Ukrainians to strike targets in Crimea and beyond.

The Ukrainians are increasingly conducting more operations inside Russia. Strikes inside Russian territory on factories, warehouses, train echelons or aviation infrastructure for munitions, armaments, combat equipment elements are aimed at undermining Russian production and logistical capabilities. The aim is clear: to disrupt the production and transport of combat equipment and weapons.

Ukrainian armed forces focus on disruption of Russian logistical routes, both inside Russia and in the occupied territories is likely to continue. Winter is a particularly good time to carry out such actions, as the consequences are greatest then. We will almost certainly see this kind of action by the Ukrainians throughout the winter period.

The successful destruction of fuel bases and tanks in recent days is further proof of this. Ukrainians seek to leave Russians without supplies of fuel, ammunition, weapons and combat equipment.

The Russians are reaping the fruits of their information war against the Ukrainians. Many are discussing that the Ukrainians are incapable of winning the war, of taking back the territories they have captured. The Russians' desire to break the will of the Ukrainians to resist, the will of the West to support Ukraine, may materialize if a large part of the target audience starts to believe this. Many critical messages are being used: the Ukrainians are tired, the West is no longer armed, negotiations need to start, etc.

Many political analysts and commentators have caught on such messages and have started broadcasting statements that are not supported by any arguments.

There is a legend that if the US does not give support, Ukraine will be forced to surrender or capitulate. We want to reassure you that even if Ukraine does not receive any arms from the US, it can produce some of the means (drones, combat equipment and ammunition) itself. Let us not underestimate Europe's contribution and the armaments it is providing, which are far from symbolic, and the support continues. How has Ukraine been able to wage war since 2014, when the amount of support was very symbolic? Let us not write Ukraine off; it is a big country and, even without aid, it will be able to fight the invaders. There is no doubt that serious support is very important and gives much more reason for success.

Another legend is that there is a balance on the front line and that the Ukrainians will not be able to turn the tide of the fighting in their favor. They will, and there is not the slightest doubt about it. For one thing, Russian logistics are strategically problematic - there is no quality alternative to the Kerch Bridge or the relatively narrow land route along the Sea of Azov. The Ukrainians have access to vast areas of Ukraine.

One more claim is that the Ukrainians are tired. The soldiers on the front line are tired, but not Ukraine, which realizes that any agreement with Putin will mean absolutely nothing. There is no other way for Ukraine but to destroy the occupiers. By any means.

Wars have always had successes and failures. The most important question is how the Ukrainians will adapt after the partly failed summer campaign. It is encouraging that we do not see any confusion or chaos in the Ukrainian forces; we see creativity and the ability to adapt and learn.

Even if Ukrainians fail to hold Avdiivka or other positions, this will have virtually no impact on the further course of the war. It is not territory that needs to be held on to, but capacity, which is very difficult to rebuild. While the Russians are setting records in their morgues, the Ukrainians are treasuring every soldier. This is a winning strategy!

As the Ukrainians say, 'глузд na розум завертає' - common sense comes to mind.

Slava Ukraini! #ukraine #war #updates

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 07:45:59 GMT

Another Ukraine update. These guys have great sources and have not been wrong yet.

There have been a lot of voices lately saying that the front has come to a complete standstill, in other words a draw. In an interview with a Ukrainian army commander, it was mentioned that at the moment both sides are at an impasse, and no one has the upper hand.

In our view, the situation is somewhat different from what is being attempted to be portrayed in the public domain. The worst thing in a war is to give the enemy information that is important, to let them know how you feel, what the real situation is.

We see the Economist article from a completely different angle to many of those who read it. Let us ask ourselves why such an 'opening' was given to a foreign media channel by a Ukrainian army commander. It is extremely rare, perhaps even the only such 'frank' article in the entire war. What is the purpose of such an article, and why is it in this magazine and not in any other newspaper or magazine?

We read in the article a statement of fact and a desire to keep the attention of the world public on the war in Ukraine and to persuade foreign partners to continue to provide arms aid by identifying the most important needs. In our view, it is also an invitation to the producers of this specific armament to approach the Ukrainians with supply offers. In assessing the needs, it appears clearly that the Ukrainians require highly modern and specific, technologically advanced weaponry.

Let us not overlook several other aspects mentioned in the article. It seems that the Ukrainian army commander is under extreme pressure from politicians, both inside and outside the country. Everyone wants quick results, but there are none. It should be noted also that the Russians are still able to mobilize resources and circumvent Western sanctions.

Could such openness harm the Ukrainians? Yes, if it is done in an ignorant way. It is quite realistic that this article is also intended to lull the Russians. Given how the Russians like to brag about their "achievements", it is possible that the Russians will accept the stated message as the truth.

In Ukraine, meanwhile, there is a lot of action and in many directions.

The impression is that the Ukrainians are deliberately adopting defensive tactics and are seeking to inflict as many losses on the Russians as possible. And the latter are certainly impressive. If our calculators are correct, the Russians have lost over 400 tanks, and many more infantry fighting and other types of vehicles between 10 October and today.

The Russians are trying to attack from different directions: Kupiansk, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, etc. This is a kind of surrender of the initiative to the Russians, but why and for what?

When the massive attack on Avdiivka began on 10 October, the Russians hoped to encircle it quickly, but this direction has become a complete field of Russian slaughter. The Ukrainians are also suffering losses, but they are not even comparable to the Russian losses. Avdiivka was supposed to be a victory for the Russians on the anniversary of the November Revolution. We cannot think of any other explanation because it does not have the strategic significance to be worth such heavy losses.

Perhaps the Russians were hoping to use the main Ukrainian reserves to defend the southern front. Unfortunately for the Russians, this did not happen, and the Ukrainians have serious reserves not only in the south but also in the Kherson direction.

It is clear from the deployment of forces that the Ukrainians are focusing on the possible forcing of the Dnipro River. Efforts are being made to prepare for a possible offensive. On the left bank of the Dnipro, the Ukrainians are generating a lot of action. It is very realistic that we will see a crossing of the Dnipro River, although this is an extremely difficult task. If it succeeds, it would be a very important extension of the active front and a very big headache for the Russians.

The Russians, for their part, are trying to tear the Ukrainian defenses apart in at least one direction. The objectives are many and varied - to protect logistical routes, to enable the development of offensive operations, to extend the possibilities for the development of logistics by rail, etc.

The biggest Russian advantages on the front are the possibility of using aviation actively and not counting their losses. The Russians are also trying to produce and use suicide drones as actively as possible. The latter has already become a particular pain for both sides in the war. However, recently, there have been very active and effective Ukrainian electronic warfare measures against the drones used by the occupiers. The number of Russian drones crashing without reaching their targets has been very high.

The Ukrainians have virtually eliminated the Black Sea Fleet's ability to dominate the Black Sea. The heavy losses and strikes on air bases have been a particularly painful blow to the combat helicopter capability. The latter's use at the front has been severely reduced.

The Ukrainians are working on the elimination of several other elements, such as electronic warfare and air defense systems. There is consistent and successful work going on, but we must admit that we were surprised by the quantities of these modern means that the Russians have. It gives the impression that they have an endless supply, which is not really the case.

The Russians have always been renowned for their ability to develop some of the best electronic warfare tools, radars, and communication solutions. And so on. Now we see that practically all the higher-level units have been equipped with them.

Observing the movement of personnel, combat equipment and weapon systems, one can conclude that the Russians are grabbing absolutely everything they can from everywhere. For example, the Koenigsberg (Kaliningrad) area, which has one of the greatest strategic importance, continues to be cannibalized. Not to mention the units in the Russian depths. This shows the serious problems the Russians are facing or about to face in supply lines.

The media reports on North Korea's extensive support for the Russians in terms of ammunition, munitions, and weapons. We have already seen a change in the flow of shipments, so it is quite realistic that the supply figures are indeed high.

It is now up to the Ukrainians to make sure that as little aid as possible reaches the occupied territories and the front line. We are seeing increased destruction of train echelons, explosions in Russian ammunition depots and attacks on logistics convoys. This is a task of the utmost importance to the Ukrainians, and it is receiving a great deal of attention.

The Ukrainians are now trying not only to hold the front, to build up capabilities, to develop and produce their own weapons and ammunition, but also to create the conditions for the receipt and use of Western aviation.

Let us look again at the article by the Ukrainian army commander and, after all that we have discussed, the picture may be somewhat different from the impression one gets at first sight.

Ukraine will prevail, there is not the slightest doubt about it. We continue to see the degradation of Russian capabilities and the strengthening of Ukrainian capabilities. Let us remember the Ukrainian proverb: 'Мати-nіч дасть пораду' - morning is wiser than evening.

#ukraine #war #updates

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 07:44:45 GMT

Another Ukraine update. These guys have great sources and have not been wrong yet.

In Ukraine, meanwhile, there is a lot of action and in many directions.

The Russians are trying to attack from different directions: Kupiansk, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, etc. This is a kind of surrender of the initiative to the Russians, but why and for what?

Let us look again at the article by the Ukrainian army commander and, after all that we have discussed, the picture may be somewhat different from the impression one gets at first sight.

#ukraine #war #updates

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 07:42:50 GMT

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 07:41:44 GMT

Another Ukraine update.

These guys have great sources and have not been wrong yet.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2023-11-06-800-justas-gavenas-cmc-17goc/

In Ukraine, meanwhile, there is a lot of action and in many directions.

The Russians are trying to attack from different directions: Kupiansk, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, etc. This is a kind of surrender of the initiative to the Russians, but why and for what?

Let us look again at the article by the Ukrainian army commander and, after all that we have discussed, the picture may be somewhat different from the impression one gets at first sight.

#ukraine #war #updates

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 07:40:32 GMT

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 07:40:31 GMT

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 07:40:30 GMT

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 07:40:29 GMT

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 07:40:24 GMT

Thu, 02 Nov 2023 18:58:02 GMT

I've just watched my first Bollywood movie. It's a blockbuster by all measures.

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/jawan?fbclid=IwAR2HNFAAGpmieWMlCz4\_z1PiHoBLFdgUwi8vU0Zu0sXQe9pzeTG6mtVJRTA

I understand it's not there usual fare (though it's got the dancing and the singing, which I could do without).

However, it's incredibly powerful social commentary that should rock the Indian political elite's world.

I hope it has an effect.

I'm surprised Modi didn't ban it. I guess that's testimony to India still having the rule of law.

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:56:15 GMT

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The Ukrainian strategy of preventing the Russians from dominating the Black Sea to the west of Crimea has been completely successful. This is especially true given that the Ukrainians are targeting not only the Russian navy, but also their air defense and aviation assets.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

What exactly are the Ukrainians seeking? One of the first objectives appears to be to throw at disarray Russian planning and management processes at various levels. This is a strategic level task, and very difficult to achieve. However, it must be stated that the Ukrainians are making fairly good progress in this regard.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

The sequence of actions is obvious and even predictable, but difficult to manage on the Russian side. The Ukrainians have successfully targeted one after another Russian ships capable of air defense, taken control of the oil platforms and the snake island, cleared the Russian surveillance and air defense capabilities, destroyed some of the most sophisticated land-based air defense systems, and struck precision strikes on the main and reserve headquarters and communication centers of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

These actions are making the Russians blind to the Ukrainian actions. And when you can't see, you can't react. The numerous and effective strikes only confirm this. The Ukrainian results are excellent. The Russians' ability to block Ukrainian grain ships is now greatly reduced. In the future, they should fall back even further.

Shutting down the fleet is not enough; the next step should be even more extensive strikes on the air defenses and aviation capabilities in Crimea, followed by strikes on key logistics routes and a complete paralysis of logistics to Crimea.

Thus, soon, the Ukrainians' priority is likely to be the elimination of the aviation capabilities in Crimea. In our estimation, this process has already begun with strikes on the air bases there. The number of such strikes is expected to increase.

We would very much like to believe that, in the next few months, Crimea will become a swamp that is beginning to smolder and will no longer be a safe place to be, and that Ukrainian aviation will become more and more emboldened and will launch raids on its approaches or even on Crimea itself. We have little doubt that this is in preparation for receiving American F-16s. If the conditions for their operation are favorable, the Russian presence in the Crimea will become pointless and suicidal, as Ukrainian pilots will be able to strike practically anywhere in the occupied territory with cheaper and more destructive means. As the Ukrainians say, 'довгі ruky' - long arms. The aerial homing bombs alone can reach more than 50 kilometers.

We also see the Russians improving, learning from their mistakes, but this process is infinitely more modest than the Ukrainian progress. From the way in which the Ukrainians are using drones, aviation, and missiles, we conclude that the arsenal of means is being expanded considerably.

The Russians are trying to respond to the Ukrainians' advances by destroying missile, drone or armaments factories, warehouses, and logistics. The strikes are clearly aimed at military and military-industrial sites. In parallel, however, the Russians are trying to attack energy facilities, seaport infrastructure linked to trade and logistics.

There are also good signs on the front. In the direction of Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhya, there are steady Ukrainian advances. We have mentioned the need to widen the width of the broken front to ensure the safety of the units and to create room for maneuver. The Ukrainians are making steady progress here and the crossing of heavily fortified lines is already a fact.

Beyond these lines, the whole area is dotted with trenches and fortifications, but the hard work has already been done - the Ukrainians have created maneuverability - and we should see much more interesting action soon. It all depends on how well the Ukrainian units can rotate on the front and interact with each other.

For the Russians, broken defense lines mean the need to replan, redeploy units, use reserves, and adapt to changing circumstances. This is very difficult when some of your units may be encircled or unable to maintain their logistics.

We should expect a more serious attempt by the Ukrainians to break through within a month or so. Weather conditions have a very strong influence on decisions. It is possible that we will see a sudden intensification of action in more than one direction. Russian morale is plummeting and so is fire support. Losses of combat equipment are continuing unabated. The use of air power has been severely limited, but still not eliminated. The use of some aircraft is already becoming a rarity due to depleted resources and losses on the front. The quantities of combat equipment delivered to the front, not to mention its condition, are more than inadequate.

On the Ukrainian side, we do not see in the fighting the abundance of heavy combat equipment that they have received from the West. We know well what it can be used for and how it can/should be used. We are looking forward to it. We believe that we will not have to wait until spring.

However, war is a brutal and unpredictable, and we can expect surprises on both sides. In the case of the Ukrainian hostilities, the Lithuanian proverb would suit here: drop by drop carves the stone. But we will end with the traditional Ukrainian motif - "Дорога крашанка до Великодня" – the eggs are precious until Easter, i.e. everything must be done in its own time.

===

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:54:11 GMT

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

===

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:52:20 GMT

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

===

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:52:07 GMT

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

ukraine #war #update

=============================

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:50:59 GMT

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

ukraine #war #update

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2023-09-23-0045-justas-gavenas-cmc/

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:50:59 GMT

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

ukraine #war #update

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2023-09-23-0045-justas-gavenas-cmc/

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:49:12 GMT

Blind ones 🧵

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2023-09-23-0045-justas-gavenas-cmc/

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

#ukraine #war #update

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:45:09 GMT

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2023-09-23-0045-justas-gavenas-cmc/

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

#ukraine #war #update

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:45:09 GMT

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2023-09-23-0045-justas-gavenas-cmc/

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

#ukraine #war #update

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:45:08 GMT

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2023-09-23-0045-justas-gavenas-cmc/

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

#ukraine #war #update

Sun, 24 Sep 2023 10:45:07 GMT

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ukraine-status-update-2023-09-23-0045-justas-gavenas-cmc/

Blind ones 🧵

Just a few days ago, we wrote about what the Ukrainians are doing and what we expect in the future west of Crimea, and here we have the results.

The strikes of the last few days are beginning to unbalance the Russian capabilities and their control in the Crimea and the area of operation.

A whole series of other objectives are running in parallel, one of which is to completely "disable" the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

#ukraine #war #update