https://blue.feedland.org/?river=http://data.feedland.org/blue/feeds/KaspaUniverse.xml It's just a feed for now Mon, 14 Apr 2025 17:54:08 GMT feedland v0.6.43 https://cyber.harvard.edu/rss/rss.html Mon, 14 Apr 2025 17:54:08 GMT http://rpc.rsscloud.io:5337/pleaseNotify Mon, April 14, 2025 1:54 PM EDT <p>Wrote this on March 31st, 2025:</p> <p>Please, STOP trying to make economic sense out of the Trump administration moves - especially tariffs. That&#39;s sane washing crazy, and a fair part of why he got elected again. Sane washing by sane-ish people. His actions are political moves, not economical ones. Economic moves having the financial security of the populous first in mind. Political moves having the single political leader or party image first in mind. He is wealthy, his financial backers are wealthy, they make money whether the markets go up or down...especially when they have insight beforehand.</p> <p>These tariffs will send every powerful company to his doorstep, to beg for relief. They will absolutely get it, if they bend the knee and swear obedience and loyalty to him, not the country, not the workers. Him alone.</p> <p>King George the III attempted this during his reign. Ironically it was the burgeoning colonies that stood up to his taxation efforts implemented as punishment for basically being ungrateful. You may know these colonies as they were the original 13 of America.</p> <p>Serendipitously King George III is well documented to suffer health problems in secret. Specifically, and likely bipolar disorder and eventually dementia until his son took the controls of power over. Let this be a warning to all on both sides.</p> <p>These are not the moves of a politician who has the good of the populous in mind. These are not the moves of someone who is motivated by strengthening democracy.</p> <p>Stay as informed as you can. Engage as often as you can. Stand up for minorities at every opportunity. Push back on the normalizing hate and fear with love and logic.</p> <p>And vote!</p> Mon, 14 Apr 2025 17:54:08 GMT https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789111 https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789111 Wrote this on March 31st, 2025: Please, STOP trying to make economic sense out of the Trump administration moves - especially tariffs. That's sane washing crazy, and a fair part of why he got elected again. Sane washing by sane-ish people. His actions are political moves, not economical ones. Economic moves having the financial security of the populous first in mind. Political moves having the single political leader or party image first in mind. He is wealthy, his financial backers are wealthy, they make money whether the markets go up or down...especially when they have insight beforehand. These tariffs will send every powerful company to his doorstep, to beg for relief. They will absolutely get it, if they bend the knee and swear obedience and loyalty to him, not the country, not the workers. Him alone. King George the III attempted this during his reign. Ironically it was the burgeoning colonies that stood up to his taxation efforts implemented as punishment for basically being ungrateful. You may know these colonies as they were the original 13 of America. Serendipitously King George III is well documented to suffer health problems in secret. Specifically, and likely bipolar disorder and eventually dementia until his son took the controls of power over. Let this be a warning to all on both sides. These are not the moves of a politician who has the good of the populous in mind. These are not the moves of someone who is motivated by strengthening democracy. Stay as informed as you can. Engage as often as you can. Stand up for minorities at every opportunity. Push back on the normalizing hate and fear with love and logic. And vote! <p>For ease of digestion, let&#39;s just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle:</p> <p>-Left translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I&#39;ve blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I&#39;m way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left.</p> <p>-Right translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. &lt;8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don&#39;t it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon.</p> <p>The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one&#39;s time?</p> <p>The data points I&#39;m watching short term are:</p> <p>*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake.</p> <p>*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake.</p> <p>*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025.</p> <p>For the bull market&#39;s sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire.</p> <p>Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it&#39;s not and all patterns are correct until they&#39;re not.</p> <p>This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I&#39;ll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I&#39;ll hold to zero as this isn&#39;t my grocery money but this is my &quot;I&#39;m investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money&quot; it is also my &quot;retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die.&quot; No pressure.</p> Fri, 11 Apr 2025 18:20:31 GMT https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789089 https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789089 For ease of digestion, let's just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle: \-Left translated cycle- ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I've blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I'm way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left. \-Right translated cycle- ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. <8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don't it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon. The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one's time? The data points I'm watching short term are: \*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake. \*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake. \*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025. For the bull market's sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire. Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it's not and all patterns are correct until they're not. This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I'll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I'll hold to zero as this isn't my grocery money but this is my "I'm investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money" it is also my "retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die." No pressure. <p>For ease of digestion, let&#39;s just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle:</p> <p>-Left translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I&#39;ve blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I&#39;m way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left.</p> <p>-Right translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. &lt;8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don&#39;t it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon.</p> <p>The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one&#39;s time?</p> <p>The data points I&#39;m watching short term are:</p> <p>*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake.</p> <p>*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake.</p> <p>*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025.</p> <p>For the bull market&#39;s sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire.</p> <p>Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it&#39;s not and all patterns are correct until they&#39;re not.</p> <p>This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I&#39;ll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I&#39;ll hold to zero as this isn&#39;t my grocery money but this is my &quot;I&#39;m investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money&quot; it is also my &quot;retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die.&quot; No pressure.</p> Fri, 11 Apr 2025 18:19:40 GMT https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789088 https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789088 For ease of digestion, let's just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle: \-Left translated cycle- ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I've blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I'm way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left. \-Right translated cycle- ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. <8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don't it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon. The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one's time? The data points I'm watching short term are: \*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake. \*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake. \*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025. For the bull market's sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire. Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it's not and all patterns are correct until they're not. This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I'll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I'll hold to zero as this isn't my grocery money but this is my "I'm investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money" it is also my "retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die." No pressure. <p>For ease of digestion, let&#39;s just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle:</p> <p>-Left translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I&#39;ve blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I&#39;m way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left.</p> <p>-Right translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. &lt;8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don&#39;t it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon.</p> <p>The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one&#39;s time?</p> <p>The data points I&#39;m watching short term are:</p> <p>*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake.</p> <p>*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake.</p> <p>*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025.</p> <p>For the bull market&#39;s sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire.</p> <p>Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it&#39;s not and all patterns are correct until they&#39;re not.</p> <p>This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I&#39;ll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I&#39;ll hold to zero as this isn&#39;t my grocery money but this is my &quot;I&#39;m investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money&quot; it is also my &quot;retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die.&quot; No pressure.</p> Fri, 11 Apr 2025 18:19:14 GMT https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789087 https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789087 For ease of digestion, let's just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle: \-Left translated cycle- ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I've blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I'm way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left. \-Right translated cycle- ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. <8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don't it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon. The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one's time? The data points I'm watching short term are: \*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake. \*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake. \*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025. For the bull market's sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire. Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it's not and all patterns are correct until they're not. This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I'll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I'll hold to zero as this isn't my grocery money but this is my "I'm investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money" it is also my "retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die." No pressure. <p>For ease of digestion, let&#39;s just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle:</p> <p>-Left translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I&#39;ve blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I&#39;m way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left.</p> <p>-Right translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. &lt;8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don&#39;t it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon.</p> <p>The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one&#39;s time?</p> <p>The data points I&#39;m watching short term are:</p> <p>*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake.</p> <p>*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake.</p> <p>*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025.</p> <p>For the bull market&#39;s sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire.</p> <p>Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it&#39;s not and all patterns are correct until they&#39;re not.</p> <p>This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I&#39;ll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I&#39;ll hold to zero as this isn&#39;t my grocery money but this is my &quot;I&#39;m investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money&quot; it is also my &quot;retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die.&quot; No pressure.</p> Fri, 11 Apr 2025 18:19:12 GMT https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789086 https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789086 For ease of digestion, let's just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle: \-Left translated cycle- ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I've blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I'm way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left. \-Right translated cycle- ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. <8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don't it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon. The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one's time? The data points I'm watching short term are: \*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake. \*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake. \*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025. For the bull market's sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire. Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it's not and all patterns are correct until they're not. This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I'll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I'll hold to zero as this isn't my grocery money but this is my "I'm investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money" it is also my "retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die." No pressure. <p>For ease of digestion, let&#39;s just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle:</p> <p>-Left translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I&#39;ve blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I&#39;m way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left.</p> <p>-Right translated cycle-</p> <p>ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. &lt;8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don&#39;t it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon.</p> <p>The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one&#39;s time?</p> <p>The data points I&#39;m watching short term are:</p> <p>*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake.</p> <p>*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake.</p> <p>*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025.</p> <p>For the bull market&#39;s sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire.</p> <p>Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it&#39;s not and all patterns are correct until they&#39;re not.</p> <p>This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I&#39;ll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I&#39;ll hold to zero as this isn&#39;t my grocery money but this is my &quot;I&#39;m investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money&quot; it is also my &quot;retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die.&quot; No pressure.</p> Fri, 11 Apr 2025 18:16:57 GMT https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789085 https://blue.feedland.org/?item=789085 For ease of digestion, let's just say there are two potentials for this current crypto cycle: \-Left translated cycle- ATH for BTC is in, recession 2025 and bear market 2025/2026. Any rallies we get in up price action moving forward are bounces to lower high dialy closes. This left translated cycle has played out in the past in traditional markets, however not yet in the nascent cryptoverse. If it does, I've blown up at least 50% of my AUM because I'm way out the risk curve, trading my thesis. Proverbial placing my money where my mouth is. So, I think the odds we are in a left translated crypto cycle are lower and less likely than the alternative. One note, the most powerful players with the most money on the line in this current system are all broadly incentivized to make the numbers go up. They will all pull, all the levers to keep the ship afloat and there are still levers left. \-Right translated cycle- ATH for BTC is yet to arrive for 2025. <8 months left, we are running out of time for this to play. It helps if we get clear moves in April and more clarity on May 7th. QT must end QE must start. M2 must continue to rise along with liquidity and velocity. Helps if we avoid an official recession in 2025, but if we don't it helps if it hits Q1/Q2 saving some potential for a new ATH in BTC still for 2025. Likely bear 2026. Historically, this has the higher odds of playing out...when we have a historically comparable player in the white house - oh damn. Of course any number of gray swan events could flip the table over here, for example the administration could say they are actually purchasing in 2025 an additional 200,000 BTC on top of their announced simple retaining the 200,000 BTC the currently hold, while discussing future purchases starting 2026 potentially 200,000 per year for 5 years. Should this occur, then it would likely kick in game theory causing largely everything stated here to flip oposite. Off to the races, BTC = moon. The irony of all this is that I played my first full crypto cycle with the thesis that the 45th presidential administration would play out like the 47th actually is. Ah, to be permanently painfully ahead of one's time? The data points I'm watching short term are: \*No BTC daily close below 69k for bull market sake. \*Terrif self-imposed storm to pass for bull market sake. \*FOMC next meeting May 7th 2025. For the bull market's sake, hopefully official end to QT and maybe even lower rates by .25 basis, more if the broader macro is on fire. Of course the opposite of everything could happen in my thesis as this is all based off of historical data and remember all data is helpful until it's not and all patterns are correct until they're not. This is all about having an edge by placing your money into statistical likely scenarios, hoping the odds remain in your favor until you can harvest profit. My true edge over the majority is likely I'll hold to zero...which debatably is just risky risk management brought on by a life lived trying to moraly get financially ahead in a broken capitalistic system that rewards un-ethical players most. I'll hold to zero as this isn't my grocery money but this is my "I'm investing instead of going out and having fun with friends and traveling money" it is also my "retirement money, I either make it, or work until I die." No pressure.